Other Timing Systems and Methods

The availability of low-cost computers, historical data, and advanced analytical programs allows contemporary traders to develop, test, and refine a literally unlimited number of trading systems or

Seasonal Tendency in November Crude Oil Futures

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methods. Yet in spite of these advances, most traders still lose. Even though the SSF market offers many new opportunities to traders and investors, far too many adventurers in this market will lose money. Three essential reasons account for this sad state of affairs:

•  Most traders fail to adequately pretest trading systems and
timing indicators before using them.

•  Most traders overoptimize trading systems, thus creating sys
tems that perform exceptionally well in pretesting but, be­
cause of their curve-fitted nature, fail to perform profitably in
real-time applications. Curve fitting is the process of adjust­
ing a trading system to perform well on historical data. Curve-
fitted systems tend to fail in the future.

•  Most traders lack the self-discipline and winning psychology
to consistently apply their methods to the markets.

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